Sugar is up about a third this year
Retail averaged about Rs 62.47 a kilo on 23 August. Delhi shops have seen Rs 65-70. Duty-free imports of 10 lakh tonnes are open till 31 October.
Retail sugar in India is roughly a third more expensive than a year ago.
The Federal put the all-India retail average near Rs 62.47 a kilo on 23 August, up from about Rs 46.30. Wholesale moved with it. In some Delhi markets, prices have hit Rs 65-70 a kilo. Gross output is now pegged around 30.6 million tonnes, down from early state projections near 34.3 million.
Maharashtra and Karnataka had excess monsoon rain and weak sucrose recovery. Uttar Pradesh fought red rot and pest damage. About 30 lakh tonnes of sugar went to ethanol this season, which is less than the production miss of about 34.5 lakh tonnes against early hopes. Ethanol's share of sugar diversion has also fallen, and nearly three-quarters of ethanol now comes from grain, mainly maize.
Ashok Gulati has said the government miscalculated the shortage and should have cut the 100% import duty months earlier, or eased the E20 push. The Centre has since banned exports until 30 September, opened duty-free imports of up to 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar until 31 October, and capped dealer stocks.
Festival demand does not wait for the next crushing season.
Blaming E20 is politically easy. The arithmetic says the cane crop failed harder than ethanol took. That still leaves a controlled market with thin buffers, delayed imports, and traders who stock when they smell scarcity. Kitchen prices are where voters meet policy.
Imports need to land before peak festive buying, and the October crush has to refill stocks without the government abandoning blending targets in a panic.