Gold hit a three-month high before the Fed speaks
Spot gold was $4,636 an ounce on Monday, the highest since May, with US inflation data and Jackson Hole still ahead.
Gold is at a three-month high, and the week in front of it is packed.
Reuters put spot gold at $4,636.34 an ounce early on Monday, up 0.7 percent, the strongest since 15 May. US futures were $4,694.80. Bullion had already risen more than 5 percent last week after a US Treasury buyback plan knocked the dollar. A weaker dollar makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for everyone else.
The next two markers are American. Markets are waiting on the July personal consumption expenditures index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, and on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole. Both will be read as clues on US rates. Goldman Sachs has a $4,900 year-end call. The bank said last week that demand for bullish gold options could push prices through that number.
Official buyers are still in. Poland's central bank said its gold rose to 20.6 million troy ounces, or 640.2 tonnes, at the end of July, from 20.3 million ounces a month earlier.
In India the metal is already expensive in rupees. Twenty-four carat gold was still above Rs 1.63 lakh per 10 grams on Sunday after a sharp weekly rally. Iran's foreign minister, dismissing the new US sanctions, added another reason for the safe-haven bid. Canada, after trade talks with Washington collapsed, said it would put tariffs on some US goods.
Silver, platinum and palladium all ticked up with gold.
Gold is doing two jobs at once. It is a rate trade, waiting on Warsh and the PCE print. It is also a war trade, sitting on Hormuz and on whatever Bessent announces.
For Indian households that is not an abstract chart. Jewellery demand meets a rupee price that jumped thousands of rupees in a week. For the RBI, which has been selling dollars to keep the rupee in a tight band, a softer dollar is helpful until oil or a Fed surprise takes it back.
The last week showed how fast the metal can move when the dollar slips. This week asks whether that move survives a US inflation number.
PCE and Jackson Hole. If Warsh sounds tight, some of this rally can reverse in a session. If he sounds patient, and if the Iran briefing is as hard as advertised, $4,636 will not be the week's high.